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[Music]

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welcome to the skeptic zone

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the podcast from australia for science

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and reason

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[Music]

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yes it's the skeptic zone podcast

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episode number

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618 for the 16th of august 2020

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richard saunders here with you from

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sydney australia

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oh the sun's not even up yet

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i can't tell if it's i think it's going

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to be a clear

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day coming up on this week's show seeds

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mysterious seeds in mysterious packets

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from china is it an urban myth is it

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really happening what do people do if

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they get these seeds

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find out when michelle franklin looks at

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this

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very weird and strange topic

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have you recently received a packet of

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seeds from china

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you didn't order them you know nothing

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about them yet

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they arrive are they seeds of distress

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find out with michelle franklin

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following that we have

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skeptical news from the australian

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skeptics via the uh

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newsletter then it's michelle bickersma

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with logical fallacies this week

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michelle looks at the texas sharpshooter

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fallacy that's an interesting name for a

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fallacy

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hope you're doing okay there in

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melbourne michelle melvin is still in

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the midst of a very strong

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very stringent lockdown regime

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to try and uh well i don't have to tell

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you why

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then to round off the show we have a

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couple of items

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from the pages of the skeptic magazine

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going back some

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biblical shenanigans at sydney's town

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hall

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then we have another article by the late

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great barry williams discussing

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what would the world be like if

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homeopathy

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was true or should i say if it worked as

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claimed now we often say in the skeptics

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the game we play the thought experiment

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is

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well

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what if it were true what would the

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world look like and you can apply that

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to talking to the dead or

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what if it were true if people could

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really find

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water using water dividing or they could

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really bend

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metals with psychic powers and so on

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it's a very interesting thought

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experiment but find out more later on

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when we read some of those items

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now don't forget before we get on to the

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show don't forget that on the 23rd to

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the 25th of october this year the

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australian skeptics national convention

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skepticon 2020 is online

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you can sit back in your lounge room in

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your dressing gown

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in your pajamas anywhere around the

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world and join us for this year's

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convention

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lots of interesting speakers lined up

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and some fun and games along the way

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look head to www.skepticon.org.u with

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links in this week's show notes as

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ever and find out more about the

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speakers and the

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the events coming up and being online

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rather than

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in a physical location means you save on

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travel you save on accommodation

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and this is reflected in the ticket

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prices which are also very cheap

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so regardless of it being online or in

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real life is that how i can say it or in

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face face to face face to face time

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oh these days are so confusing join us

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please join us for skepticon

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get your tickets today at uh

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skepticon.org you

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yes it is a bit of a strange uh time

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we're still living through and

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we'll be living through for a while yet

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i guess

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which makes me think how we will be when

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we come out of all this

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now i intend to be fitter

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thinner yeah fitter and thinner i hope

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that maybe you too are putting a

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positive

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angle on this so what do you think

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that you will be post-covered will you

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be

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happier healthier will you make an

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effort to

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to do something to learn a new skill set

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online education i guess what i'm saying

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is we all shouldn't

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try to make the best of a bad situation

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but now it's time for me to run

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downstairs and have the very last

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piece of peanut butter toast i'm going

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to have for a while because i've decided

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with the recommendation from the

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specialist to cut my cholesterol down a

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little

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they looked at my chart and i said all

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your cholesterol is a little high

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not very much so no more peanut butter

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toast

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for me for a while so i'm going to enjoy

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this last one will i do that

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so

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life is wild

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[Music]

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hi guys this is michelle franklin

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reporting from the northern territory

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today i want to talk about something

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that i saw on the internet

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back in july i saw this little story on

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facebook

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about someone in america who claimed to

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have received a package of seeds from

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china in the mail

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they said they didn't order anything and

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this little package that was labeled as

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earrings

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but actually contained lemon seeds just

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showed up at their house one day

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the story was about how the u.s

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department of agriculture was

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asking that anyone who receives a

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package like this to contact them

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immediately and dispose of it safely

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my first thought was that it's some

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silly mistake someone's ordered some

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seeds online and the package has been

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mislabeled and sent to the wrong person

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happens all the time

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but i read the comments so many people

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were laughing at how stupid the

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authorities are for

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worrying about lemon seeds and of course

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this bothered me because

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they had no regard for the possibility

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of pests or pathogens on those seeds and

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they all seemed extremely confident that

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they were in fact

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lemon seeds it reminded me of those

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people

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on facebook who comment on the the snake

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id

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posts you know the ones where there's a

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brown colored snake

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and they assume that they're experts and

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declared that that's certainly a king

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brown

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or worse the ones who see the tiniest

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hint of a pattern and

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declare that it must be a harmless

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carpet snake

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seeming naive to the fact that there are

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any other snakes in the world besides

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king brown and

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carpet anyway i didn't think too much

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about this post other than to feel a bit

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annoyed at

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overconfident amateurs educating one

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another and spreading their own

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misplaced confidence around

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then one day last week i woke up and

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checked facebook again

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and found a follow-up story and this

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time i actually read the article

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it claimed that an arkansas man had

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received a mysterious package from china

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containing unknown seeds

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and out of curiosity he planted one and

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looked after it

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of course this is stupid he shouldn't

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have done that but i wasn't surprised

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people are curious

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and he was just trying to learn more and

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he didn't understand the risks

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but the story became quite sensational

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after that it claimed that the mystery

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seeds

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had grown into a massive unstoppable

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fruit and it's still unknown what

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exactly the plant is

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although it's producing large white

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fruit and orange flowers

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and it says that authorities are coming

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to remove the plant and do further tests

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of course any decent botanist will be

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able to identify the plant with no

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problems

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but like any expert of course they're

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not going to do it over the phone or

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from a photo

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they're going to want to have a look at

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it properly before making a statement

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so the mystery plant is likely no more

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of a mystery than the brown colored

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snake

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it just hasn't been looked at by the

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right person yet

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now at this point my overactive

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skepticism still thinking that it's a

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dumb fluff piece about an old man and

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his pumpkin and it's no big deal

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but i watched the video and it appears

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that this is actually happening in the

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us on a larger scale than i was assuming

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and in other countries as well further

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googling led me

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to articles of similar packages from

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china malaysia and taiwan showing up in

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multiple countries including australia

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i went to the usda website and right

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there on their front page right above

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the covert 19 banner

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was a link regarding unsolicited

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packages of seeds from china

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it's not there today when i just checked

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but a week ago it was there

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that made me pay attention so i clicked

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the link and

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from there i learned that there's

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currently a joint investigation underway

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involving multiple state and federal

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departments

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including the usda's animal implant

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health

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inspection service and the department of

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homeland security's custom border

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protection

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i guess they were taking it seriously so

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that's good

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according to the usda at this stage they

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have

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no evidence that it's anything other

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than a brushing scam and

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i had to google brushing apparently this

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is

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where online sellers send unsolicited

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packages to random consumers and then

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post false reviews to boost their sales

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ratings

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of course if this is a brushing scam it

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seems odd that they'd pick

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seeds to send it's an odd choice but

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i guess they're small and lightweight

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and probably fairly cheap to acquire

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what i mainly wanted to talk about on

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this topic though isn't the actual risk

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of the seeds

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if you've listened to my story a while

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back about johnny depp and his infamous

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dogs then you'll already know that

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biosecurity across borders is a big deal

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and in this new age of covert 19 i'm

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hoping that more people will understand

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the reasoning for that

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what i'm interested in talking about

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here is the assumed intent of these

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packages

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in the first article that i read back in

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july there were comments from people

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speculating that these seeds were sent

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00:10:43,190 --> 00:10:40,640
by the chinese government

288
00:10:44,630 --> 00:10:43,200
in a deliberate attempt to spread pests

289
00:10:46,230 --> 00:10:44,640
and disease in the u.s

290
00:10:48,150 --> 00:10:46,240
the responses to these comments were

291
00:10:50,069 --> 00:10:48,160
rightfully skeptical pointing out that

292
00:10:52,310 --> 00:10:50,079
there would be much more effective ways

293
00:10:54,069 --> 00:10:52,320
to do that than package up seeds and

294
00:10:56,630 --> 00:10:54,079
label them as jewelry and send them to

295
00:10:58,069 --> 00:10:56,640
some random guy in arkansas

296
00:11:00,069 --> 00:10:58,079
but many of the comments on that

297
00:11:01,670 --> 00:11:00,079
original post were adamant that the

298
00:11:04,310 --> 00:11:01,680
seeds were lemon seeds

299
00:11:06,069 --> 00:11:04,320
and as lemons are harmless the whole

300
00:11:09,190 --> 00:11:06,079
thing is ridiculous and it should

301
00:11:11,190 --> 00:11:09,200
all be dismissed and ignored now to be

302
00:11:12,949 --> 00:11:11,200
fair they probably were lemon seeds

303
00:11:14,870 --> 00:11:12,959
according to the articles that i've read

304
00:11:16,630 --> 00:11:14,880
the packages contain all sorts of common

305
00:11:17,430 --> 00:11:16,640
agricultural seeds that are easy to come

306
00:11:20,630 --> 00:11:17,440
by

307
00:11:22,870 --> 00:11:20,640
but even if they are just lemons

308
00:11:23,990 --> 00:11:22,880
and even if there really is just a

309
00:11:26,069 --> 00:11:24,000
brushing scam

310
00:11:28,949 --> 00:11:26,079
that doesn't mean it's safe we don't

311
00:11:30,870 --> 00:11:28,959
need ill intent or malice to cause harm

312
00:11:33,670 --> 00:11:30,880
apathy and stupidity are perfectly

313
00:11:35,910 --> 00:11:33,680
capable of causing harm on their own

314
00:11:37,670 --> 00:11:35,920
if this is just a brushing scam do you

315
00:11:39,990 --> 00:11:37,680
think the people perpetrating it are

316
00:11:41,350 --> 00:11:40,000
concerned about biosecurity

317
00:11:44,550 --> 00:11:41,360
do you think they're being careful to

318
00:11:45,750 --> 00:11:44,560
only send clean disease-free seeds

319
00:11:47,509 --> 00:11:45,760
do you think they're doing risk

320
00:11:49,590 --> 00:11:47,519
assessments and considering the local

321
00:11:50,230 --> 00:11:49,600
ecosystems at the various destinations

322
00:11:51,910 --> 00:11:50,240
and

323
00:11:53,829 --> 00:11:51,920
making sure that the species of choice

324
00:11:55,430 --> 00:11:53,839
has low potential to become an invasive

325
00:11:57,750 --> 00:11:55,440
pest in that region

326
00:12:00,310 --> 00:11:57,760
or even checking to see if there are

327
00:12:03,509 --> 00:12:00,320
laws regarding the import of unpermitted

328
00:12:05,190 --> 00:12:03,519
plant materials in this new age of

329
00:12:07,030 --> 00:12:05,200
covert 19

330
00:12:09,750 --> 00:12:07,040
where the general public are starting to

331
00:12:11,829 --> 00:12:09,760
understand the need for biosecurity

332
00:12:14,949 --> 00:12:11,839
we're seeing the harm that can be caused

333
00:12:17,190 --> 00:12:14,959
by those who don't take it seriously

334
00:12:18,550 --> 00:12:17,200
and very few of them have malicious

335
00:12:20,790 --> 00:12:18,560
intent

336
00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:20,800
stupidity and unearned confidence are

337
00:12:24,790 --> 00:12:22,880
sufficient to bring whole nations to the

338
00:12:27,190 --> 00:12:24,800
ground in a pandemic

339
00:12:28,629 --> 00:12:27,200
and also sufficient to spread dangerous

340
00:12:31,430 --> 00:12:28,639
seeds and cause harm when

341
00:12:33,430 --> 00:12:31,440
some guy in china wants to boost his

342
00:12:35,430 --> 00:12:33,440
sales rating and some guy in america

343
00:12:37,509 --> 00:12:35,440
wants to grow a mystery pumpkin

344
00:12:38,550 --> 00:12:37,519
neither of them have malicious intent

345
00:12:41,530 --> 00:12:38,560
but also

346
00:12:47,430 --> 00:12:41,540
neither of them understand the risks

347
00:12:49,269 --> 00:12:47,440
[Music]

348
00:12:50,870 --> 00:12:49,279
i'll be keeping an eye out for further

349
00:12:52,790 --> 00:12:50,880
developments on this story

350
00:12:55,110 --> 00:12:52,800
maybe the conspiracy theorists are right

351
00:12:57,430 --> 00:12:55,120
and it's all an elaborate hoax to spread

352
00:12:58,949 --> 00:12:57,440
disease and misfortune in the world but

353
00:13:01,509 --> 00:12:58,959
until i see evidence of this

354
00:13:02,710 --> 00:13:01,519
i'm applying hanlon's razor which states

355
00:13:04,790 --> 00:13:02,720
that you should

356
00:13:20,370 --> 00:13:04,800
never attribute to malice that which is

357
00:13:40,500 --> 00:13:20,380
adequately explained by stupidity

358
00:13:40,510 --> 00:14:00,829
[Music]

359
00:14:25,750 --> 00:14:02,660
ciao

360
00:14:27,430 --> 00:14:25,760
[Music]

361
00:14:29,269 --> 00:14:27,440
now it's time to look once again at the

362
00:14:32,730 --> 00:14:29,279
australian skeptics

363
00:14:34,150 --> 00:14:32,740
newsletter fresh in my inbox

364
00:14:37,730 --> 00:14:34,160
[Music]

365
00:14:42,150 --> 00:14:37,740
and this is newsletter number 104

366
00:14:43,829 --> 00:14:42,160
[Music]

367
00:14:46,710 --> 00:14:43,839
and the first item in the newsletter

368
00:14:49,030 --> 00:14:46,720
skepticon early bird tickets available

369
00:14:50,310 --> 00:14:49,040
early bird tickets for skeptic on 2020

370
00:14:53,509 --> 00:14:50,320
the australian skeptic's

371
00:14:54,470 --> 00:14:53,519
36th annual convention october the 24th

372
00:14:57,189 --> 00:14:54,480
to the 25th

373
00:14:59,110 --> 00:14:57,199
are now available at reduced prices for

374
00:15:00,870 --> 00:14:59,120
a limited time

375
00:15:02,389 --> 00:15:00,880
the price reflects the fact that this

376
00:15:06,150 --> 00:15:02,399
year's event will be

377
00:15:09,110 --> 00:15:06,160
all online early bird on sale

378
00:15:11,509 --> 00:15:09,120
until the 24th of september with

379
00:15:13,430 --> 00:15:11,519
concession tickets at just 30 dollars

380
00:15:15,670 --> 00:15:13,440
and general tickets at just fifty

381
00:15:16,710 --> 00:15:15,680
dollars the standard ticket price and

382
00:15:19,509 --> 00:15:16,720
this will be

383
00:15:20,629 --> 00:15:19,519
after the 24th of december concession

384
00:15:25,189 --> 00:15:20,639
will be 45

385
00:15:28,790 --> 00:15:27,829
this event will be streamed live on

386
00:15:30,870 --> 00:15:28,800
youtube

387
00:15:32,949 --> 00:15:30,880
we will provide you with details on how

388
00:15:35,189 --> 00:15:32,959
to access the live stream via email

389
00:15:37,590 --> 00:15:35,199
after you purchase your tickets

390
00:15:38,550 --> 00:15:37,600
the usual awards will be announced via

391
00:15:41,350 --> 00:15:38,560
satellite

392
00:15:43,509 --> 00:15:41,360
from a glitzy venue probably richard

393
00:15:46,710 --> 00:15:43,519
saunders lounge room

394
00:15:49,990 --> 00:15:46,720
okay in the meantime speakers

395
00:15:52,949 --> 00:15:50,000
so far include dr alice howarth

396
00:15:54,949 --> 00:15:52,959
dr karl kruselniski michael foley

397
00:15:58,550 --> 00:15:54,959
professor tanya smith

398
00:16:01,829 --> 00:16:00,629
the next item says young men are more

399
00:16:04,870 --> 00:16:01,839
likely to believe

400
00:16:07,189 --> 00:16:04,880
covet 19 myths

401
00:16:08,389 --> 00:16:07,199
if the media are anything to go by you'd

402
00:16:10,790 --> 00:16:08,399
think people who believe

403
00:16:11,910 --> 00:16:10,800
coronavirus myths are white middle-aged

404
00:16:14,949 --> 00:16:11,920
women called

405
00:16:15,829 --> 00:16:14,959
karen but a new study shows a different

406
00:16:17,990 --> 00:16:15,839
picture

407
00:16:21,350 --> 00:16:18,000
university of sydney researchers found

408
00:16:24,150 --> 00:16:21,360
men and people aged 18 to 25

409
00:16:25,189 --> 00:16:24,160
are more likely to believe corona 19

410
00:16:27,430 --> 00:16:25,199
myths

411
00:16:29,990 --> 00:16:27,440
they also found an increase from people

412
00:16:33,269 --> 00:16:30,000
from a non-english speaking background

413
00:16:36,470 --> 00:16:33,279
it looks like kevin has replaced karen

414
00:16:37,030 --> 00:16:36,480
as the stereotype du jour another item

415
00:16:41,389 --> 00:16:37,040
says

416
00:16:44,710 --> 00:16:41,399
new zealand psychic delivers vitamins

417
00:16:47,030 --> 00:16:44,720
vibrationally quite a lengthy item

418
00:16:49,030 --> 00:16:47,040
more than required but it involves

419
00:16:50,550 --> 00:16:49,040
psychic jeanette wilson who the new

420
00:16:53,110 --> 00:16:50,560
zealand skeptics

421
00:16:54,230 --> 00:16:53,120
have been on to as well as susan gerbic

422
00:16:56,710 --> 00:16:54,240
by the way

423
00:16:59,749 --> 00:16:56,720
she is also a psychic surgeon and

424
00:17:02,790 --> 00:16:59,759
promotes anti-vaccination anti-5g

425
00:17:04,789 --> 00:17:02,800
q anon beliefs and recently said

426
00:17:06,549 --> 00:17:04,799
a dietary supplement could prevent

427
00:17:10,630 --> 00:17:06,559
covert 19

428
00:17:13,510 --> 00:17:10,640
so you get the idea business is booming

429
00:17:15,590 --> 00:17:13,520
for new york city psychics new york's

430
00:17:16,470 --> 00:17:15,600
psychics and fortune tellers say they

431
00:17:19,750 --> 00:17:16,480
are seeing

432
00:17:22,870 --> 00:17:19,760
more clients and making more money than

433
00:17:25,750 --> 00:17:22,880
ever before quote

434
00:17:27,829 --> 00:17:25,760
when there's a big change in the world

435
00:17:30,310 --> 00:17:27,839
or more uncertainty in the world

436
00:17:33,750 --> 00:17:30,320
that is when people look for more

437
00:17:36,950 --> 00:17:33,760
certainty and quote psychic betsy lafaye

438
00:17:39,350 --> 00:17:36,960
told the new york post quote

439
00:17:40,230 --> 00:17:39,360
everyone now wants more certainty and

440
00:17:43,029 --> 00:17:40,240
yes

441
00:17:43,750 --> 00:17:43,039
that is when people tend to turn to

442
00:17:50,230 --> 00:17:43,760
psychics

443
00:17:51,270 --> 00:17:50,240
not two words we expected in the same

444
00:17:53,190 --> 00:17:51,280
sentence

445
00:17:55,270 --> 00:17:53,200
and there are more items in this

446
00:17:57,669 --> 00:17:55,280
newsletter to subscribe to the

447
00:18:00,710 --> 00:17:57,679
australian skeptics newsletter yourself

448
00:18:01,830 --> 00:18:00,720
and to receive this in your inbox every

449
00:18:06,310 --> 00:18:01,840
couple of weeks

450
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:06,320
just head to www.skeptics.com.iu

451
00:18:25,270 --> 00:18:15,730
and sign up

452
00:18:28,870 --> 00:18:25,280
[Music]

453
00:18:32,549 --> 00:18:28,880
appearing at skepticon 2020 professor

454
00:18:34,390 --> 00:18:32,559
tanya smith tanya smith is a professor

455
00:18:36,789 --> 00:18:34,400
in the australian research center for

456
00:18:38,950 --> 00:18:36,799
human evolution and the griffith center

457
00:18:42,070 --> 00:18:38,960
for social and cultural research

458
00:18:45,110 --> 00:18:42,080
at griffith university and

459
00:18:47,750 --> 00:18:45,120
she is passionate about teeth

460
00:18:49,990 --> 00:18:47,760
teeth preserved for millions of years

461
00:18:50,630 --> 00:18:50,000
remarkably faithful records of daily

462
00:18:53,110 --> 00:18:50,640
growth

463
00:18:55,029 --> 00:18:53,120
and infant diet as well as stress

464
00:18:57,590 --> 00:18:55,039
experienced during birth

465
00:18:58,470 --> 00:18:57,600
her aim is to understand fully how teeth

466
00:19:01,750 --> 00:18:58,480
grow

467
00:19:03,110 --> 00:19:01,760
why they vary and how this information

468
00:19:06,470 --> 00:19:03,120
can advance the field

469
00:19:09,110 --> 00:19:06,480
of human evolutionary biology topics

470
00:19:10,789 --> 00:19:09,120
she elaborates on in her popular science

471
00:19:14,150 --> 00:19:10,799
book the tale

472
00:19:18,710 --> 00:19:14,160
teeth tell published by mit press

473
00:19:19,510 --> 00:19:18,720
in 2018 tanya has previously held a

474
00:19:22,150 --> 00:19:19,520
professorship

475
00:19:23,990 --> 00:19:22,160
at harvard university and fellowships at

476
00:19:27,029 --> 00:19:24,000
the radcliffe institute for advanced

477
00:19:28,070 --> 00:19:27,039
study and the max planck institute for

478
00:19:30,470 --> 00:19:28,080
evolutionary

479
00:19:32,310 --> 00:19:30,480
anthropology her research has been

480
00:19:33,190 --> 00:19:32,320
funded by the australian academy of

481
00:19:36,150 --> 00:19:33,200
sciences

482
00:19:36,549 --> 00:19:36,160
and the u.s national science foundation

483
00:19:39,430 --> 00:19:36,559
and

484
00:19:41,430 --> 00:19:39,440
published in nature proceedings of the

485
00:19:44,950 --> 00:19:41,440
national academy of sciences

486
00:19:46,870 --> 00:19:44,960
and science advances professor

487
00:19:48,470 --> 00:19:46,880
tanya smith just one of the speakers

488
00:19:51,190 --> 00:19:48,480
appearing at skepticon

489
00:19:53,430 --> 00:19:51,200
2020 the australian skeptics national

490
00:19:57,950 --> 00:19:53,440
convention

491
00:20:07,890 --> 00:19:59,510
www.skepticon.org

492
00:20:07,900 --> 00:20:18,830
[Music]

493
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:25,430
do

494
00:20:30,470 --> 00:20:26,950
logical fallacies

495
00:20:33,270 --> 00:20:30,480
[Music]

496
00:20:35,110 --> 00:20:33,280
what are logical fallacies and why is it

497
00:20:37,750 --> 00:20:35,120
important that critical thinkers should

498
00:20:40,070 --> 00:20:37,760
know about them

499
00:20:41,750 --> 00:20:40,080
a logical fallacy is an error we can

500
00:20:43,750 --> 00:20:41,760
make in reasoning

501
00:20:48,149 --> 00:20:43,760
but it usually crops up when we are

502
00:20:50,230 --> 00:20:48,159
discussing or arguing our point of view

503
00:20:52,470 --> 00:20:50,240
some people might even knowingly use

504
00:20:53,350 --> 00:20:52,480
them to try and score cheap points in an

505
00:20:56,630 --> 00:20:53,360
argument

506
00:20:59,190 --> 00:20:56,640
due to intellectual laziness

507
00:21:01,029 --> 00:20:59,200
they are traps we can fall into but if

508
00:21:03,110 --> 00:21:01,039
we know what to look out for

509
00:21:09,110 --> 00:21:03,120
we can spot them when they occur and

510
00:21:14,070 --> 00:21:11,590
this time we'll look at the texas

511
00:21:17,510 --> 00:21:14,080
sharpshooter fallacy

512
00:21:20,149 --> 00:21:17,520
also known as the clustering illusion

513
00:21:21,430 --> 00:21:20,159
this is when you downplay or ignore

514
00:21:23,510 --> 00:21:21,440
information that

515
00:21:24,789 --> 00:21:23,520
doesn't support your argument or point

516
00:21:27,350 --> 00:21:24,799
of view and

517
00:21:28,470 --> 00:21:27,360
focus on information that seems to be

518
00:21:31,430 --> 00:21:28,480
more in line

519
00:21:32,230 --> 00:21:31,440
with what you want to be true it is also

520
00:21:36,230 --> 00:21:32,240
imposing

521
00:21:37,350 --> 00:21:36,240
meaning onto randomness this must surely

522
00:21:39,669 --> 00:21:37,360
be one of the more

523
00:21:41,190 --> 00:21:39,679
interesting names for any logical

524
00:21:43,990 --> 00:21:41,200
fallacy

525
00:21:44,789 --> 00:21:44,000
it comes about from the idea that

526
00:21:48,149 --> 00:21:44,799
someone would

527
00:21:49,110 --> 00:21:48,159
shoot at random at the side of a barn or

528
00:21:52,230 --> 00:21:49,120
fence

529
00:21:54,710 --> 00:21:52,240
then paint a target on later

530
00:21:56,789 --> 00:21:54,720
around the bullet holes that happen to

531
00:21:59,430 --> 00:21:56,799
be close together

532
00:22:01,110 --> 00:21:59,440
to make it appear as if the shots were

533
00:22:05,029 --> 00:22:01,120
on target

534
00:22:08,310 --> 00:22:05,039
in 1555 the prophet nostradamus

535
00:22:11,590 --> 00:22:08,320
4 saw the coronavirus plague of

536
00:22:14,630 --> 00:22:11,600
2020 he wrote in century 2

537
00:22:15,830 --> 00:22:14,640
quatrain 35 the great plague of the

538
00:22:18,950 --> 00:22:15,840
maritime city

539
00:22:21,990 --> 00:22:18,960
will not cease until there be avenged

540
00:22:23,909 --> 00:22:22,000
the death of the just blood condemned

541
00:22:27,669 --> 00:22:23,919
for the price without crime

542
00:22:29,590 --> 00:22:27,679
of the great lady unwronged by pretence

543
00:22:30,710 --> 00:22:29,600
finding meaning in the quatrains of

544
00:22:35,270 --> 00:22:30,720
nostradamus

545
00:22:36,470 --> 00:22:35,280
is an old game since he wrote 942 of

546
00:22:40,149 --> 00:22:36,480
them

547
00:22:42,950 --> 00:22:40,159
interpretation

548
00:22:45,750 --> 00:22:42,960
and even mistranslation from the french

549
00:22:48,310 --> 00:22:45,760
used in the 16th century

550
00:22:49,350 --> 00:22:48,320
it's really not that hard to find at

551
00:22:53,029 --> 00:22:49,360
least one

552
00:22:54,870 --> 00:22:53,039
or even more you can make fit events of

553
00:22:58,710 --> 00:22:54,880
more recent times

554
00:23:01,029 --> 00:22:58,720
or at any time since they were written

555
00:23:04,470 --> 00:23:01,039
just look for the lines that seem to fit

556
00:23:07,990 --> 00:23:04,480
and ignore the ones that don't

557
00:23:11,270 --> 00:23:08,000
much of this quatrain the maritime city

558
00:23:14,470 --> 00:23:11,280
the lady unwronged are ignored

559
00:23:15,070 --> 00:23:14,480
this same quatrain has also been used to

560
00:23:17,830 --> 00:23:15,080
claim

561
00:23:21,510 --> 00:23:17,840
nostradamus foresaw the great plague of

562
00:23:23,990 --> 00:23:21,520
london in 1665.

563
00:23:25,110 --> 00:23:24,000
if you'd like to know more there is an

564
00:23:27,990 --> 00:23:25,120
excellent book

565
00:23:30,470 --> 00:23:28,000
called the mask of nostradamus written

566
00:23:33,270 --> 00:23:30,480
by james randy

567
00:23:35,110 --> 00:23:33,280
when tested the water diviner found

568
00:23:37,990 --> 00:23:35,120
three bottles of water

569
00:23:38,549 --> 00:23:38,000
that were hidden from view one after the

570
00:23:45,590 --> 00:23:38,559
other

571
00:23:49,029 --> 00:23:45,600
and points to water divining being real

572
00:23:51,269 --> 00:23:49,039
this can and does happen during tests of

573
00:23:53,669 --> 00:23:51,279
water divining

574
00:23:56,230 --> 00:23:53,679
but short runs of success are expected

575
00:23:59,190 --> 00:23:56,240
when conducting many tests

576
00:23:59,830 --> 00:23:59,200
it also happens in casinos when someone

577
00:24:02,870 --> 00:23:59,840
might get

578
00:24:06,950 --> 00:24:02,880
lucky on the roulette table two

579
00:24:09,990 --> 00:24:06,960
or three or even four times in a row

580
00:24:11,909 --> 00:24:10,000
but overall we all know the house wins

581
00:24:14,630 --> 00:24:11,919
in the end

582
00:24:16,310 --> 00:24:14,640
we need to take all the results into

583
00:24:19,590 --> 00:24:16,320
account before we can

584
00:24:23,190 --> 00:24:19,600
reach a real conclusion it's

585
00:24:24,149 --> 00:24:23,200
just so strange that bad things seem to

586
00:24:27,909 --> 00:24:24,159
happen to me in

587
00:24:31,510 --> 00:24:27,919
threes first i lost my job

588
00:24:33,110 --> 00:24:31,520
then my dog got sick and now the tv

589
00:24:35,669 --> 00:24:33,120
won't work

590
00:24:36,470 --> 00:24:35,679
good and bad things happen from time to

591
00:24:40,549 --> 00:24:36,480
time

592
00:24:42,870 --> 00:24:40,559
and both can be random since many people

593
00:24:44,149 --> 00:24:42,880
have already heard the saying bad things

594
00:24:47,750 --> 00:24:44,159
come in threes

595
00:24:51,590 --> 00:24:47,760
or even famous people die in threes

596
00:24:52,789 --> 00:24:51,600
and so on it's all too easy for us to

597
00:24:55,830 --> 00:24:52,799
see a pattern

598
00:24:58,950 --> 00:24:55,840
after three such events

599
00:25:01,470 --> 00:24:58,960
ah but what if bad things

600
00:25:03,909 --> 00:25:01,480
come in fours or fives

601
00:25:06,149 --> 00:25:03,919
[Music]

602
00:25:07,830 --> 00:25:06,159
looking for things that seem to line up

603
00:25:10,950 --> 00:25:07,840
is all very well

604
00:25:13,110 --> 00:25:10,960
but you need to also take into account

605
00:25:14,950 --> 00:25:13,120
all the related things or events that

606
00:25:17,590 --> 00:25:14,960
don't line up

607
00:25:19,430 --> 00:25:17,600
as they too must be considered in the

608
00:25:26,149 --> 00:25:19,440
overall pattern of events

609
00:25:30,870 --> 00:25:28,310
knowing a logical fallacy when you hear

610
00:25:33,110 --> 00:25:30,880
one and even knowing its name

611
00:25:34,470 --> 00:25:33,120
is important when arguing your point of

612
00:25:37,909 --> 00:25:34,480
view

613
00:25:40,310 --> 00:25:37,919
however you may come across as arrogant

614
00:25:41,110 --> 00:25:40,320
and not get very far if you call it out

615
00:25:43,510 --> 00:25:41,120
by name

616
00:25:45,590 --> 00:25:43,520
to your opponent when you hear it being

617
00:25:48,070 --> 00:25:45,600
used

618
00:25:48,870 --> 00:25:48,080
if your opponent calls you out for using

619
00:25:51,110 --> 00:25:48,880
one

620
00:25:54,230 --> 00:25:51,120
it's time to stop and think about how

621
00:25:56,310 --> 00:25:54,240
you are making your case

622
00:25:57,510 --> 00:25:56,320
use your knowledge of logical fallacies

623
00:26:00,310 --> 00:25:57,520
wisely

624
00:26:01,510 --> 00:26:00,320
and remember that even if your point of

625
00:26:03,830 --> 00:26:01,520
view is right

626
00:26:05,190 --> 00:26:03,840
and you know all the pitfalls in arguing

627
00:26:07,590 --> 00:26:05,200
your case

628
00:26:08,789 --> 00:26:07,600
it doesn't always mean you'll win on the

629
00:26:12,070 --> 00:26:08,799
day

630
00:26:14,660 --> 00:26:12,080
and as skeptics we must also remember

631
00:26:17,669 --> 00:26:14,670
that we too can be wrong at times

632
00:26:19,430 --> 00:26:17,679
[Music]

633
00:26:28,390 --> 00:26:19,440
i'm michelle bickersma from the vic

634
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:35,590
[Music]

635
00:26:38,870 --> 00:26:37,029
i started listening to ono ross and

636
00:27:46,549 --> 00:26:38,880
carrie shortly after i broke my arm

637
00:27:51,110 --> 00:27:49,669
thank you gary

638
00:27:52,389 --> 00:27:51,120
owner ross and carey is just a podcast

639
00:27:53,510 --> 00:27:52,399
it doesn't do anything it's just sounds

640
00:28:04,940 --> 00:27:53,520
you listen to in your ears all these

641
00:28:10,549 --> 00:28:08,310
[Music]

642
00:28:11,750 --> 00:28:10,559
now it's time to dive once again into

643
00:28:13,430 --> 00:28:11,760
the back issues

644
00:28:15,190 --> 00:28:13,440
of the skeptic the journal from

645
00:28:17,350 --> 00:28:15,200
australian skeptics

646
00:28:18,830 --> 00:28:17,360
and this time we're going all the way

647
00:28:22,710 --> 00:28:18,840
back to

648
00:28:25,350 --> 00:28:22,720
1990 volume 10 number two

649
00:28:27,350 --> 00:28:25,360
and on page seven we discover a uh

650
00:28:29,350 --> 00:28:27,360
report by tim mandom

651
00:28:31,669 --> 00:28:29,360
the current editor of the skeptic

652
00:28:33,830 --> 00:28:31,679
magazine and one of our reporters here

653
00:28:41,029 --> 00:28:33,840
on the skeptic zone

654
00:28:45,350 --> 00:28:44,470
an exhibition entitled bible prophecy

655
00:28:47,430 --> 00:28:45,360
display

656
00:28:48,630 --> 00:28:47,440
held at the sydney town hall on april

657
00:28:51,669 --> 00:28:48,640
19th to

658
00:28:52,470 --> 00:28:51,679
the 21st proved an irresistible

659
00:28:54,630 --> 00:28:52,480
temptation

660
00:28:57,269 --> 00:28:54,640
especially in the view of the articles

661
00:29:00,310 --> 00:28:57,279
in this and previous issues

662
00:29:01,350 --> 00:29:00,320
taking a skeptical approach to the same

663
00:29:04,789 --> 00:29:01,360
subject

664
00:29:07,350 --> 00:29:04,799
organized by the sydney revival center

665
00:29:08,230 --> 00:29:07,360
the displays covered such current items

666
00:29:11,430 --> 00:29:08,240
of interest

667
00:29:11,990 --> 00:29:11,440
as the greenhouse effect the fall of the

668
00:29:15,510 --> 00:29:12,000
berlin

669
00:29:17,590 --> 00:29:15,520
wall pollution and soil erosion

670
00:29:19,029 --> 00:29:17,600
as well as older favorites like the

671
00:29:21,830 --> 00:29:19,039
state of israel

672
00:29:23,430 --> 00:29:21,840
the russian threat the british throne is

673
00:29:26,149 --> 00:29:23,440
direct descendant of

674
00:29:27,590 --> 00:29:26,159
the throne of david and the great

675
00:29:29,590 --> 00:29:27,600
pyramid

676
00:29:30,870 --> 00:29:29,600
this latter subject seemed to have

677
00:29:33,990 --> 00:29:30,880
little relevance to

678
00:29:36,549 --> 00:29:34,000
biblical study but rather concentrated

679
00:29:38,789 --> 00:29:36,559
on how clever the egyptians were to have

680
00:29:39,590 --> 00:29:38,799
built the pyramid in the first place

681
00:29:42,950 --> 00:29:39,600
aligned

682
00:29:46,310 --> 00:29:42,960
as it supposedly is with

683
00:29:48,549 --> 00:29:46,320
every real or imagined line of longitude

684
00:29:50,789 --> 00:29:48,559
and latitude of significance

685
00:29:51,750 --> 00:29:50,799
as this display was based on the now

686
00:29:54,710 --> 00:29:51,760
discounted

687
00:29:55,590 --> 00:29:54,720
theories of piazzi smythe there seemed

688
00:29:58,710 --> 00:29:55,600
little point

689
00:30:01,269 --> 00:29:58,720
in including it nevertheless truth

690
00:30:03,110 --> 00:30:01,279
and relevance did not seem to be of

691
00:30:05,029 --> 00:30:03,120
great concern to the organizers

692
00:30:06,149 --> 00:30:05,039
who obviously preferred simplistic

693
00:30:09,750 --> 00:30:06,159
observations

694
00:30:12,789 --> 00:30:09,760
and fear tactics as weapons in the war

695
00:30:15,669 --> 00:30:12,799
to win converts one of the

696
00:30:17,590 --> 00:30:15,679
silliest displays was the amazing

697
00:30:21,190 --> 00:30:17,600
revelation that australia

698
00:30:24,549 --> 00:30:21,200
is mentioned in the bible behold

699
00:30:26,310 --> 00:30:24,559
these shall come from far and low these

700
00:30:28,549 --> 00:30:26,320
from the north and west

701
00:30:30,310 --> 00:30:28,559
and these from the land of terror

702
00:30:34,310 --> 00:30:30,320
australis

703
00:30:37,430 --> 00:30:34,320
isaiah 49 12 while admitting that

704
00:30:40,950 --> 00:30:37,440
terror astralis is not actually in the

705
00:30:42,950 --> 00:30:40,960
english language version but is rather

706
00:30:46,149 --> 00:30:42,960
lifted from the vulgate latin

707
00:30:47,510 --> 00:30:46,159
of sin jerome the organizers see this as

708
00:30:51,110 --> 00:30:47,520
further proof

709
00:30:54,149 --> 00:30:51,120
of the bible's in heresy the facts

710
00:30:55,750 --> 00:30:54,159
that the old testament wasn't written in

711
00:30:57,990 --> 00:30:55,760
latin originally

712
00:30:59,990 --> 00:30:58,000
that australia was first called new

713
00:31:02,789 --> 00:31:00,000
holland by europeans

714
00:31:04,630 --> 00:31:02,799
and a correct translation of the quotas

715
00:31:07,590 --> 00:31:04,640
used in the exhibition

716
00:31:10,149 --> 00:31:07,600
would be the meaningless from the land

717
00:31:12,950 --> 00:31:10,159
of the land of the south

718
00:31:14,789 --> 00:31:12,960
and that the new international version

719
00:31:18,070 --> 00:31:14,799
of the bible translates

720
00:31:21,269 --> 00:31:18,080
terror australis as being

721
00:31:24,230 --> 00:31:21,279
the region of aswan in southern egypt

722
00:31:25,190 --> 00:31:24,240
and therefore a long way from australia

723
00:31:27,990 --> 00:31:25,200
seem to have

724
00:31:29,110 --> 00:31:28,000
escaped the organizers still the local

725
00:31:31,990 --> 00:31:29,120
touch no matter how

726
00:31:33,350 --> 00:31:32,000
nonsensical always works well with the

727
00:31:36,549 --> 00:31:33,360
visitors

728
00:31:41,029 --> 00:31:36,559
just as silly was the long diatribe

729
00:31:42,789 --> 00:31:41,039
circa 1899 on the numerical coincidences

730
00:31:45,990 --> 00:31:42,799
of the bible

731
00:31:49,669 --> 00:31:46,000
this style of numerological legitimate

732
00:31:52,630 --> 00:31:49,679
has no value at all being equally

733
00:31:53,029 --> 00:31:52,640
easily carried out on any work of length

734
00:31:55,509 --> 00:31:53,039
and

735
00:31:56,789 --> 00:31:55,519
even on something as simple as your own

736
00:31:58,470 --> 00:31:56,799
name

737
00:31:59,830 --> 00:31:58,480
from the exhibitor's point of view

738
00:32:03,269 --> 00:31:59,840
coincidence

739
00:32:06,310 --> 00:32:03,279
often contrived equals fact

740
00:32:08,310 --> 00:32:06,320
the meaning of life is 42.

741
00:32:10,149 --> 00:32:08,320
many of the other displays covered in

742
00:32:12,870 --> 00:32:10,159
the exhibition referred to

743
00:32:13,509 --> 00:32:12,880
prophecies dealt with by colin groves at

744
00:32:18,149 --> 00:32:13,519
al

745
00:32:19,830 --> 00:32:18,159
you want to read

746
00:32:21,509 --> 00:32:19,840
this journal of course it's free to

747
00:32:24,549 --> 00:32:21,519
download and there are many

748
00:32:27,990 --> 00:32:24,559
very interesting items in this copy

749
00:32:31,430 --> 00:32:28,000
in this issue about prophecy we read on

750
00:32:34,470 --> 00:32:31,440
what was most disturbing was an almost

751
00:32:35,269 --> 00:32:34,480
gleeful approach as one disaster after

752
00:32:38,310 --> 00:32:35,279
another

753
00:32:39,029 --> 00:32:38,320
earthquakes famine war plagues etc were

754
00:32:42,389 --> 00:32:39,039
listed

755
00:32:45,830 --> 00:32:42,399
all of course indicating the approaching

756
00:32:47,830 --> 00:32:45,840
final days it seemed that the organizers

757
00:32:49,830 --> 00:32:47,840
could hardly wait for the end

758
00:32:51,430 --> 00:32:49,840
regardless of the suffering imposed on

759
00:32:53,990 --> 00:32:51,440
their fellow humans

760
00:32:55,110 --> 00:32:54,000
not to mention other forms of flora and

761
00:32:57,350 --> 00:32:55,120
fauna

762
00:32:58,310 --> 00:32:57,360
the greatest toll from an earthquake in

763
00:33:00,950 --> 00:32:58,320
historic times

764
00:33:01,990 --> 00:33:00,960
probably took place over 400 years ago

765
00:33:04,549 --> 00:33:02,000
in china

766
00:33:06,549 --> 00:33:04,559
the greatest volcanic explosion over

767
00:33:08,950 --> 00:33:06,559
3000 years ago

768
00:33:11,029 --> 00:33:08,960
and the worst plague was the black death

769
00:33:14,789 --> 00:33:11,039
of 1347

770
00:33:17,269 --> 00:33:14,799
to 1351 in fact there is no evidence

771
00:33:19,350 --> 00:33:17,279
that natural disasters are increasing

772
00:33:20,870 --> 00:33:19,360
or getting worse it is just that our

773
00:33:23,990 --> 00:33:20,880
communications are better

774
00:33:25,669 --> 00:33:24,000
and we know about more

775
00:33:27,190 --> 00:33:25,679
this doesn't bother the organizers

776
00:33:30,470 --> 00:33:27,200
either who equate the

777
00:33:33,430 --> 00:33:30,480
newcastle earthquake small by world

778
00:33:35,029 --> 00:33:33,440
disaster standards with the worst of

779
00:33:37,269 --> 00:33:35,039
recorded history

780
00:33:38,149 --> 00:33:37,279
a total lack of historical perspective

781
00:33:41,830 --> 00:33:38,159
is evident

782
00:33:45,190 --> 00:33:41,840
in every utterance of those espousing a

783
00:33:47,269 --> 00:33:45,200
final days scenario rather than

784
00:33:49,350 --> 00:33:47,279
thoughtful prophecies these are

785
00:33:52,310 --> 00:33:49,360
fear-mongering bogeymen

786
00:33:54,630 --> 00:33:52,320
we may ask therefore what value are

787
00:33:57,190 --> 00:33:54,640
converts created from fear

788
00:34:00,280 --> 00:33:57,200
rather than the love which is supposed

789
00:34:03,909 --> 00:34:00,290
to be the basis of christianity

790
00:34:06,149 --> 00:34:03,919
[Music]

791
00:34:08,790 --> 00:34:06,159
and again that report comes to us from

792
00:34:10,230 --> 00:34:08,800
the year 1990 written by tim mendenham

793
00:34:16,149 --> 00:34:10,240
in the pages of the skeptic

794
00:34:19,990 --> 00:34:18,389
yes it's great fun to look through all

795
00:34:20,710 --> 00:34:20,000
these back issues you never know what

796
00:34:24,069 --> 00:34:20,720
you're going to

797
00:34:27,829 --> 00:34:24,079
find and now we jump to

798
00:34:32,069 --> 00:34:27,839
spring of 1991

799
00:34:35,109 --> 00:34:32,079
and this is volume 11 number three

800
00:34:36,629 --> 00:34:35,119
and an item written by the late the late

801
00:34:38,230 --> 00:34:36,639
great barry williams

802
00:34:39,990 --> 00:34:38,240
stole to the australian skeptics for

803
00:34:48,629 --> 00:34:40,000
many years

804
00:34:52,069 --> 00:34:48,639
paranormal claims what if

805
00:34:53,669 --> 00:34:52,079
skeptics often lament that an in-depth

806
00:34:55,270 --> 00:34:53,679
knowledge of science is required to

807
00:34:57,910 --> 00:34:55,280
refute the claims made by

808
00:35:00,470 --> 00:34:57,920
proponents of extraordinary claims in

809
00:35:04,150 --> 00:35:00,480
some cases this may well be true

810
00:35:05,349 --> 00:35:04,160
does the epr paradox allow for action at

811
00:35:07,750 --> 00:35:05,359
a distance

812
00:35:09,190 --> 00:35:07,760
and thus legitimize the claims for

813
00:35:11,829 --> 00:35:09,200
psychokinesis

814
00:35:13,150 --> 00:35:11,839
but in general the majority of claims

815
00:35:16,310 --> 00:35:13,160
that we

816
00:35:18,470 --> 00:35:16,320
non-scientist skeptics come across can

817
00:35:19,430 --> 00:35:18,480
be tested by the application of common

818
00:35:22,150 --> 00:35:19,440
sense

819
00:35:22,630 --> 00:35:22,160
and the rules of logic a useful rule of

820
00:35:25,829 --> 00:35:22,640
thumb

821
00:35:29,349 --> 00:35:25,839
is if it sounds like crap

822
00:35:30,310 --> 00:35:29,359
it probably is one method a skeptic can

823
00:35:33,190 --> 00:35:30,320
use to test

824
00:35:34,710 --> 00:35:33,200
the unlikely truth of a claim without

825
00:35:37,030 --> 00:35:34,720
going to the trouble of setting up

826
00:35:39,750 --> 00:35:37,040
controlled double-blind tests

827
00:35:42,710 --> 00:35:39,760
or any of the other rigorous methods

828
00:35:45,430 --> 00:35:42,720
used in testing a scientific hypothesis

829
00:35:46,470 --> 00:35:45,440
is to make the assumption that the claim

830
00:35:48,950 --> 00:35:46,480
is true

831
00:35:51,190 --> 00:35:48,960
having made this assumption we can make

832
00:35:54,390 --> 00:35:51,200
logical extrapolations

833
00:35:55,349 --> 00:35:54,400
based on it and see how the world that

834
00:35:58,069 --> 00:35:55,359
is allowed by

835
00:35:59,349 --> 00:35:58,079
our assumption agrees with the world in

836
00:36:03,109 --> 00:35:59,359
which we live

837
00:36:05,349 --> 00:36:03,119
this is of course not an infallible test

838
00:36:06,150 --> 00:36:05,359
many quantum claims for instance are

839
00:36:08,870 --> 00:36:06,160
certainly

840
00:36:11,109 --> 00:36:08,880
counter intuitive and sound most

841
00:36:13,750 --> 00:36:11,119
peculiar to the lay skeptic

842
00:36:14,630 --> 00:36:13,760
and to not a few scientists too i

843
00:36:17,270 --> 00:36:14,640
suspect

844
00:36:19,270 --> 00:36:17,280
but it is a useful test for many

845
00:36:21,270 --> 00:36:19,280
everyday claims

846
00:36:22,710 --> 00:36:21,280
here we look at the world in which

847
00:36:26,230 --> 00:36:22,720
homeopathy

848
00:36:29,109 --> 00:36:26,240
century

849
00:36:29,750 --> 00:36:29,119
invention of the german physician samuel

850
00:36:32,950 --> 00:36:29,760
hellermann

851
00:36:33,990 --> 00:36:32,960
its fundamental tenants are that like cu

852
00:36:36,230 --> 00:36:34,000
is like

853
00:36:37,190 --> 00:36:36,240
and that infinitesimal doses of a

854
00:36:40,550 --> 00:36:37,200
substance are

855
00:36:41,510 --> 00:36:40,560
therapeutic that is that small amounts

856
00:36:43,510 --> 00:36:41,520
of a substance

857
00:36:45,829 --> 00:36:43,520
which produce similar symptoms to a

858
00:36:48,470 --> 00:36:45,839
disease will rally the body's natural

859
00:36:51,349 --> 00:36:48,480
defenses to combat the disease

860
00:36:52,950 --> 00:36:51,359
in its time before we had developed the

861
00:36:55,910 --> 00:36:52,960
germ theory of disease

862
00:36:57,510 --> 00:36:55,920
it was not an unreasonable proposition

863
00:37:00,470 --> 00:36:57,520
but it can now be seen

864
00:37:01,990 --> 00:37:00,480
as an unscientific proposition in some

865
00:37:05,270 --> 00:37:02,000
ways parallel to

866
00:37:06,630 --> 00:37:05,280
immunization its failure lay in the fact

867
00:37:09,670 --> 00:37:06,640
that it sought to address

868
00:37:11,589 --> 00:37:09,680
disease through its symptoms and not as

869
00:37:13,750 --> 00:37:11,599
is the case with immunization

870
00:37:15,990 --> 00:37:13,760
through its causes the key to

871
00:37:17,349 --> 00:37:16,000
understanding homeopathic nostrums lies

872
00:37:20,950 --> 00:37:17,359
in the extreme

873
00:37:23,270 --> 00:37:20,960
dilution of the active agent

874
00:37:24,310 --> 00:37:23,280
homeopathy has it that the more dilute

875
00:37:27,510 --> 00:37:24,320
the substance

876
00:37:30,150 --> 00:37:27,520
the more certain the cure as an example

877
00:37:32,470 --> 00:37:30,160
one milliliter of the active agent

878
00:37:33,589 --> 00:37:32,480
might be added to 10 liters of distilled

879
00:37:35,990 --> 00:37:33,599
water

880
00:37:36,870 --> 00:37:36,000
the resultant mixture is then agitated

881
00:37:39,750 --> 00:37:36,880
and one

882
00:37:42,310 --> 00:37:39,760
milliliter of this dilute solution is

883
00:37:44,630 --> 00:37:42,320
added to a further 10 liters of water

884
00:37:45,589 --> 00:37:44,640
and so on until the prescribed level of

885
00:37:48,630 --> 00:37:45,599
dilution is

886
00:37:49,510 --> 00:37:48,640
reached it is obvious that after a few

887
00:37:51,510 --> 00:37:49,520
dilutions

888
00:37:52,550 --> 00:37:51,520
we reach a stage where it is

889
00:37:55,990 --> 00:37:52,560
statistically

890
00:37:56,470 --> 00:37:56,000
very improbable that any molecule of the

891
00:37:59,670 --> 00:37:56,480
active

892
00:38:02,310 --> 00:37:59,680
agent will be found in any dose of the

893
00:38:03,990 --> 00:38:02,320
medicine this is not a problem to the

894
00:38:05,990 --> 00:38:04,000
dedicated homeopath

895
00:38:07,270 --> 00:38:06,000
as the cure comes not from the

896
00:38:10,550 --> 00:38:07,280
ingredient

897
00:38:12,870 --> 00:38:10,560
but from some energetic memory

898
00:38:13,670 --> 00:38:12,880
contained in the water and imprinted

899
00:38:16,310 --> 00:38:13,680
therein

900
00:38:17,829 --> 00:38:16,320
by the agitation during the dilution

901
00:38:20,470 --> 00:38:17,839
process

902
00:38:21,430 --> 00:38:20,480
it is probably superfluous to say that

903
00:38:23,349 --> 00:38:21,440
there is

904
00:38:24,470 --> 00:38:23,359
not a great deal of evidence for this

905
00:38:26,470 --> 00:38:24,480
proposition

906
00:38:29,030 --> 00:38:26,480
nor is there a body of evidence to

907
00:38:31,430 --> 00:38:29,040
suggest that homeopathy has a great

908
00:38:32,870 --> 00:38:31,440
influence on the eradication of any

909
00:38:35,190 --> 00:38:32,880
major disease

910
00:38:36,150 --> 00:38:35,200
however that is not the purpose of this

911
00:38:39,190 --> 00:38:36,160
article

912
00:38:42,470 --> 00:38:39,200
we are considering a world

913
00:38:45,589 --> 00:38:42,480
h world in which homeopathy

914
00:38:47,750 --> 00:38:45,599
is true let me be blunt

915
00:38:49,510 --> 00:38:47,760
a world in which one of the fundamental

916
00:38:52,790 --> 00:38:49,520
tenets of homeopathy

917
00:38:56,390 --> 00:38:52,800
the diluter the better is true

918
00:38:57,030 --> 00:38:56,400
is a world devoid of life the problem

919
00:39:00,069 --> 00:38:57,040
for life

920
00:39:02,470 --> 00:39:00,079
lies not in the homeopathically active

921
00:39:04,630 --> 00:39:02,480
ingredients but in the water in which

922
00:39:06,870 --> 00:39:04,640
these ingredients are diluted

923
00:39:08,390 --> 00:39:06,880
the water on our planet has been around

924
00:39:11,030 --> 00:39:08,400
for a long time

925
00:39:11,829 --> 00:39:11,040
and during that time it has been in

926
00:39:14,790 --> 00:39:11,839
contact with

927
00:39:17,349 --> 00:39:14,800
every element every compound indeed

928
00:39:19,910 --> 00:39:17,359
every substance that exists on the earth

929
00:39:21,910 --> 00:39:19,920
the fresh water we drink comes from rain

930
00:39:22,710 --> 00:39:21,920
which comes from evaporation from the

931
00:39:28,790 --> 00:39:22,720
oceans

932
00:39:31,750 --> 00:39:28,800
so the memory of everything in them must

933
00:39:35,190 --> 00:39:31,760
be imprinted on the water molecules

934
00:39:36,870 --> 00:39:35,200
storms add a bit more agitation sodas

935
00:39:38,390 --> 00:39:36,880
hitting the ground and rushing down

936
00:39:40,630 --> 00:39:38,400
rivers and streams

937
00:39:41,589 --> 00:39:40,640
just consider a few of the substances

938
00:39:44,550 --> 00:39:41,599
whose

939
00:39:45,510 --> 00:39:44,560
vibrations will be imprinted on inimical

940
00:39:49,270 --> 00:39:45,520
to health

941
00:39:53,109 --> 00:39:49,280
and well-being or indeed to life itself

942
00:39:56,390 --> 00:39:53,119
plutonium arsenic radium

943
00:40:00,630 --> 00:39:56,400
hydrogen cyanide botulinus toxin

944
00:40:03,589 --> 00:40:00,640
cholera bacteria mercury carbon monoxide

945
00:40:04,470 --> 00:40:03,599
the list is almost endless and very

946
00:40:06,630 --> 00:40:04,480
nasty

947
00:40:08,230 --> 00:40:06,640
no matter what beneficial homeopathic

948
00:40:10,870 --> 00:40:08,240
agent was diluted with this

949
00:40:11,910 --> 00:40:10,880
water its benefits would surely be

950
00:40:15,829 --> 00:40:11,920
outweighed by the

951
00:40:18,309 --> 00:40:15,839
nastiness already imprinted on the water

952
00:40:19,750 --> 00:40:18,319
traces of these things probably do exist

953
00:40:23,109 --> 00:40:19,760
in the water we drink

954
00:40:24,069 --> 00:40:23,119
in our mundane world but at a level that

955
00:40:27,510 --> 00:40:24,079
is regarded as

956
00:40:30,790 --> 00:40:27,520
safe and if we are reasonably careful

957
00:40:33,990 --> 00:40:30,800
they do not cause us any great harm in

958
00:40:35,109 --> 00:40:34,000
h-world they all exist in every drop of

959
00:40:38,069 --> 00:40:35,119
water we drink

960
00:40:40,630 --> 00:40:38,079
or at least the memory of them exists

961
00:40:42,790 --> 00:40:40,640
and the more we try to purify the water

962
00:40:43,670 --> 00:40:42,800
the more certain their inimical effects

963
00:40:46,870 --> 00:40:43,680
will be

964
00:40:47,990 --> 00:40:46,880
there can be no safe level at all in

965
00:40:52,069 --> 00:40:48,000
this world

966
00:40:52,550 --> 00:40:52,079
unless perhaps it lies in huge doses in

967
00:40:54,950 --> 00:40:52,560
fact

968
00:40:55,990 --> 00:40:54,960
following the homeopathic reasoning the

969
00:40:59,349 --> 00:40:56,000
more of anything

970
00:41:02,390 --> 00:40:59,359
one ingests the less harm it should do

971
00:41:05,030 --> 00:41:02,400
the treatment we use to remove what we

972
00:41:05,589 --> 00:41:05,040
in the non-homeopathic world regard as

973
00:41:08,710 --> 00:41:05,599
the

974
00:41:12,870 --> 00:41:08,720
harmful bits only serves to increase

975
00:41:15,430 --> 00:41:12,880
their potency in each world conversely

976
00:41:16,069 --> 00:41:15,440
if the other homeopathic tenant like cu

977
00:41:19,270 --> 00:41:16,079
is like

978
00:41:22,150 --> 00:41:19,280
is true we should never get sick at all

979
00:41:23,349 --> 00:41:22,160
for all of the reasons listed above the

980
00:41:25,990 --> 00:41:23,359
ultimately dilute

981
00:41:28,230 --> 00:41:26,000
samples existing in our water of every

982
00:41:30,150 --> 00:41:28,240
substance that can make us ill

983
00:41:31,270 --> 00:41:30,160
should have rendered us immune to

984
00:41:34,390 --> 00:41:31,280
everything

985
00:41:35,589 --> 00:41:34,400
indeed if the memory of any substance

986
00:41:37,750 --> 00:41:35,599
survive

987
00:41:39,910 --> 00:41:37,760
even when none of the substance itself

988
00:41:42,950 --> 00:41:39,920
remains then why should we have

989
00:41:46,069 --> 00:41:42,960
need for homeopathic remedies at all

990
00:41:47,589 --> 00:41:46,079
the memory should be retained in the

991
00:41:50,550 --> 00:41:47,599
water molecules

992
00:41:51,829 --> 00:41:50,560
that make up so much of our bodies it

993
00:41:53,829 --> 00:41:51,839
would appear then

994
00:41:55,109 --> 00:41:53,839
that the two fundamental beliefs of the

995
00:41:57,589 --> 00:41:55,119
homeopath would

996
00:41:59,589 --> 00:41:57,599
if they were true make for a very

997
00:42:02,870 --> 00:41:59,599
strange world indeed

998
00:42:03,510 --> 00:42:02,880
i contend that our world does not at all

999
00:42:06,630 --> 00:42:03,520
resemble

1000
00:42:07,990 --> 00:42:06,640
h-world and for a homeopath to convince

1001
00:42:10,710 --> 00:42:08,000
me otherwise

1002
00:42:11,349 --> 00:42:10,720
he would require to show much better

1003
00:42:13,910 --> 00:42:11,359
evidence

1004
00:42:15,670 --> 00:42:13,920
than currently exists and he would have

1005
00:42:21,829 --> 00:42:15,680
to explain why my

1006
00:42:27,870 --> 00:42:25,270
and that was paranormal claims what if

1007
00:42:29,430 --> 00:42:27,880
written by barry williams way back in

1008
00:42:31,750 --> 00:42:29,440
1991

1009
00:42:33,190 --> 00:42:31,760
and i think i can answer barry after all

1010
00:42:36,069 --> 00:42:33,200
these years

1011
00:42:37,910 --> 00:42:36,079
that if you ask a homeopath why wouldn't

1012
00:42:41,030 --> 00:42:37,920
the world be like h world

1013
00:42:41,750 --> 00:42:41,040
the homeopath would answer oh well you

1014
00:42:44,069 --> 00:42:41,760
see

1015
00:42:45,510 --> 00:42:44,079
it doesn't work like that which is the

1016
00:42:47,349 --> 00:42:45,520
same answer we get from

1017
00:42:49,430 --> 00:42:47,359
all sorts of branches of the paranormal

1018
00:42:51,270 --> 00:42:49,440
why can't you predict the winning lotto

1019
00:42:53,990 --> 00:42:51,280
numbers next week oh it doesn't work

1020
00:42:56,230 --> 00:42:54,000
like that uh why can't the

1021
00:42:58,630 --> 00:42:56,240
the dead tell you where they hid the the

1022
00:42:59,589 --> 00:42:58,640
key oh it doesn't work like that and so

1023
00:43:01,829 --> 00:42:59,599
on

1024
00:43:03,670 --> 00:43:01,839
but what a great resource it is to be

1025
00:43:07,910 --> 00:43:03,680
able to pour through the pages

1026
00:43:11,430 --> 00:43:07,920
of the skeptic which is uh soon to be

1027
00:43:15,030 --> 00:43:11,440
uh 40 years old 40 years

1028
00:43:16,390 --> 00:43:15,040
of articles interviews items reports

1029
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:16,400
examinations

1030
00:43:28,370 --> 00:43:33,430
[Music]

1031
00:43:37,030 --> 00:43:35,750
hey fellow skeptics ben radford here

1032
00:43:38,550 --> 00:43:37,040
with celestia ward

1033
00:43:40,950 --> 00:43:38,560
your friendly host of squaring the

1034
00:43:43,670 --> 00:43:40,960
strange a podcast that looks at topics

1035
00:43:45,990 --> 00:43:43,680
ranging from legends panics and cryptids

1036
00:43:47,750 --> 00:43:46,000
to media myths psychology and folklore

1037
00:43:48,309 --> 00:43:47,760
breaking things down and picking things

1038
00:43:50,390 --> 00:43:48,319
apart

1039
00:43:52,309 --> 00:43:50,400
as we skeptics do we bring a few

1040
00:43:54,069 --> 00:43:52,319
different perspectives on things

1041
00:43:55,430 --> 00:43:54,079
celestia for example is a witty

1042
00:43:56,950 --> 00:43:55,440
cartoonist and ben

1043
00:43:58,950 --> 00:43:56,960
is a brilliant writer and long time

1044
00:43:59,510 --> 00:43:58,960
skeptical investigator we don't always

1045
00:44:01,670 --> 00:43:59,520
agree

1046
00:44:04,230 --> 00:44:01,680
but we have fun trying and we learn new

1047
00:44:04,790 --> 00:44:04,240
things join us for new topics every week

1048
00:44:06,950 --> 00:44:04,800
or two

1049
00:44:08,390 --> 00:44:06,960
or browse our backlog of evergreen

1050
00:44:11,109 --> 00:44:08,400
episodes available

1051
00:44:11,829 --> 00:44:11,119
on itunes and all your podcast feeding

1052
00:44:20,829 --> 00:44:11,839
troughs

1053
00:44:20,839 --> 00:44:30,790
bye-bye

1054
00:44:33,990 --> 00:44:32,309
thank you for listening to the skeptic

1055
00:44:36,790 --> 00:44:34,000
zone podcast

1056
00:44:38,870 --> 00:44:36,800
in the last few days my friend bailey

1057
00:44:41,270 --> 00:44:38,880
harris the young author

1058
00:44:43,750 --> 00:44:41,280
of the stardust series of books let me

1059
00:44:46,230 --> 00:44:43,760
know that there is a special edition

1060
00:44:47,349 --> 00:44:46,240
with a forward by richard dawkins no

1061
00:44:51,670 --> 00:44:47,359
less

1062
00:44:54,550 --> 00:44:51,680
and this is a children's book

1063
00:44:55,589 --> 00:44:54,560
inspired by what neil degrasse tyson

1064
00:44:57,990 --> 00:44:55,599
called

1065
00:45:00,230 --> 00:44:58,000
the most astounding fact we are

1066
00:45:02,870 --> 00:45:00,240
literally made of stardust

1067
00:45:04,390 --> 00:45:02,880
and bailey has a kickstarter to help

1068
00:45:07,349 --> 00:45:04,400
with this project

1069
00:45:07,670 --> 00:45:07,359
and if you're interested in this please

1070
00:45:09,950 --> 00:45:07,680
go

1071
00:45:11,510 --> 00:45:09,960
to this week's show notes at

1072
00:45:14,390 --> 00:45:11,520
skepticzone.tv

1073
00:45:15,589 --> 00:45:14,400
and you'll find a link there coming up

1074
00:45:16,950 --> 00:45:15,599
on next week's show more

1075
00:45:18,470 --> 00:45:16,960
logical fallacies with michelle

1076
00:45:20,309 --> 00:45:18,480
biggesmar down there in melbourne yes

1077
00:45:23,190 --> 00:45:20,319
we're thinking about you michelle

1078
00:45:24,470 --> 00:45:23,200
in the lockdown the stringent lockdown

1079
00:45:26,230 --> 00:45:24,480
and all our friends

1080
00:45:28,390 --> 00:45:26,240
family members and colleagues down in

1081
00:45:30,069 --> 00:45:28,400
melbourne and in victoria

1082
00:45:32,150 --> 00:45:30,079
we look forward to the day when the

1083
00:45:34,790 --> 00:45:32,160
borders are free again

1084
00:45:36,150 --> 00:45:34,800
also the strange case of an australian

1085
00:45:39,430 --> 00:45:36,160
astronaut

1086
00:45:40,550 --> 00:45:39,440
on his way to the moon hmm that's coming

1087
00:45:41,910 --> 00:45:40,560
up next week

1088
00:45:44,829 --> 00:45:41,920
and i should be able to officially

1089
00:45:45,990 --> 00:45:44,839
announce next week news of our new

1090
00:45:48,270 --> 00:45:46,000
reporter

1091
00:45:49,510 --> 00:45:48,280
but if you're curious you can go to

1092
00:45:52,309 --> 00:45:49,520
skepticzone.tv

1093
00:45:53,270 --> 00:45:52,319
and click the contacts link and you'll

1094
00:45:54,510 --> 00:45:53,280
see

1095
00:45:56,390 --> 00:45:54,520
oh if you do happen to go to

1096
00:45:57,990 --> 00:45:56,400
skepticzone.tv please click the

1097
00:46:00,950 --> 00:45:58,000
subscribe link or the

1098
00:46:03,829 --> 00:46:00,960
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1099
00:46:06,309 --> 00:46:03,839
become a sponsor a supporter

1100
00:46:07,589 --> 00:46:06,319
of the show and it's only because of the

1101
00:46:09,510 --> 00:46:07,599
people just like you who

1102
00:46:10,790 --> 00:46:09,520
already support the show that you are

1103
00:46:13,510 --> 00:46:10,800
hearing this

1104
00:46:14,630 --> 00:46:13,520
right now now normally at this time i'd

1105
00:46:16,550 --> 00:46:14,640
say something like

1106
00:46:17,750 --> 00:46:16,560
until next week this is richard saunders

1107
00:46:20,710 --> 00:46:17,760
signing off blah blah blah

1108
00:46:22,550 --> 00:46:20,720
you know the story well i'm gonna sign

1109
00:46:26,069 --> 00:46:22,560
off now but you're not

1110
00:46:29,510 --> 00:46:26,079
going to get the normal traditional

1111
00:46:30,950 --> 00:46:29,520
much loved ending to the skeptic zone

1112
00:46:33,109 --> 00:46:30,960
what you're going to hear now is a

1113
00:46:34,069 --> 00:46:33,119
recording made by our reporter michelle

1114
00:46:38,230 --> 00:46:34,079
franklin

1115
00:46:41,270 --> 00:46:38,240
she and i teamed up to uh pull a gag on

1116
00:46:44,630 --> 00:46:41,280
her daughters i'll hand it over to

1117
00:46:53,190 --> 00:46:48,630
okay so we made a deal about going

1118
00:46:54,710 --> 00:46:53,200
to science week how are you gonna win

1119
00:46:58,550 --> 00:46:54,720
your prize of being allowed to go to

1120
00:47:02,470 --> 00:47:00,950
i made three predictions if they come

1121
00:47:03,430 --> 00:47:02,480
true we're going to science week to

1122
00:47:06,470 --> 00:47:03,440
build a rocket

1123
00:47:09,990 --> 00:47:06,480
a rocket is that cool

1124
00:47:12,230 --> 00:47:10,000
all right do you want to listen to

1125
00:47:18,309 --> 00:47:12,240
the dice game now yes all right here we

1126
00:47:21,510 --> 00:47:19,589
you've been listening now tell me what

1127
00:47:30,860 --> 00:47:21,520
your three predictions are

1128
00:47:35,829 --> 00:47:33,910
[Music]

1129
00:47:37,190 --> 00:47:35,839
you can follow the skeptic zone podcast

1130
00:47:40,390 --> 00:47:37,200
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1131
00:47:41,270 --> 00:47:40,400
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1132
00:47:44,230 --> 00:47:41,280
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1133
00:47:45,109 --> 00:47:44,240
on itunes you can also support the

1134
00:47:49,109 --> 00:47:45,119
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1135
00:47:51,990 --> 00:47:49,119
podcast

1136
00:47:53,750 --> 00:47:52,000
is an independent production the views

1137
00:47:54,150 --> 00:47:53,760
and opinions expressed on the skeptic

1138
00:47:56,230 --> 00:47:54,160
zone

1139
00:47:58,069 --> 00:47:56,240
would be necessarily those of australian

1140
00:48:01,829 --> 00:47:58,079
skeptics or any other

1141
00:48:01,839 --> 00:48:10,870
okay here we go here we go here we go

1142
00:48:14,230 --> 00:48:12,790
hello all you people who listen after

1143
00:48:16,790 --> 00:48:14,240
the music

1144
00:48:17,670 --> 00:48:16,800
the afterthoughts the people who keep

1145
00:48:19,589 --> 00:48:17,680
listening

1146
00:48:21,349 --> 00:48:19,599
even though the show's gone now if you

1147
00:48:22,549 --> 00:48:21,359
haven't heard this part of the show

1148
00:48:25,990 --> 00:48:22,559
before

1149
00:48:29,990 --> 00:48:26,000
this is where i roll and die sometimes

1150
00:48:33,190 --> 00:48:30,000
six sometimes ten sometimes thirty today

1151
00:48:35,670 --> 00:48:33,200
a ten sided diet and you use your magic

1152
00:48:39,109 --> 00:48:35,680
predicting power or

1153
00:48:41,589 --> 00:48:39,119
dumb luck good luck to

1154
00:48:42,470 --> 00:48:41,599
guess what numbers are going to come up

1155
00:48:45,190 --> 00:48:42,480
so

1156
00:48:46,950 --> 00:48:45,200
here it is i've got the die right here

1157
00:48:50,710 --> 00:48:46,960
predictor way

1158
00:48:53,750 --> 00:48:50,720
what's your first uh prediction

1159
00:48:54,660 --> 00:48:53,760
what's your first prediction or here it

1160
00:48:57,510 --> 00:48:54,670
comes

1161
00:49:15,109 --> 00:48:57,520
[Music]

1162
00:49:20,630 --> 00:49:18,470
it's hiding under the six

1163
00:49:22,150 --> 00:49:20,640
that's it that's my number is that your

1164
00:49:24,950 --> 00:49:22,160
number yeah that's my number

1165
00:49:26,549 --> 00:49:24,960
did you get two yeah i got two one more

1166
00:49:28,829 --> 00:49:26,559
and we're going using your psychic

1167
00:49:32,549 --> 00:49:28,839
powers or

1168
00:49:36,470 --> 00:49:32,559
whatever last number

1169
00:49:39,510 --> 00:49:36,480
on the die this week is three

1170
00:49:42,630 --> 00:49:39,520
that's it that's it that's my number

1171
00:49:45,270 --> 00:49:42,640
are you sure six

1172
00:49:46,390 --> 00:49:45,280
what does that mean going to science

1173
00:49:50,150 --> 00:49:46,400
week

1174
00:49:54,549 --> 00:49:50,160
holly how does um

1175
00:49:54,559 --> 00:50:01,270
he heard me

1176
00:50:07,990 --> 00:50:04,790
what happened he heard did he hear you

1177
00:50:10,069 --> 00:50:08,000
yeah are you sure he had all the way

1178
00:50:13,349 --> 00:50:10,079
from sydney

1179
00:50:17,190 --> 00:50:13,359
what what do you think happened

1180
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:21,190
have you taught anything

1181
00:50:27,589 --> 00:50:24,230
do you think i did did you

1182
00:50:31,349 --> 00:50:27,599
them that we're going to science week

1183
00:50:33,910 --> 00:50:31,359
and then we're doing the dice game wait

1184
00:50:38,829 --> 00:50:33,920
did you tell him to do that

1185
00:50:38,839 --> 00:50:45,349
picture

1186
00:50:55,109 --> 00:50:48,390
was that fun though yeah

1187
00:50:57,670 --> 00:50:55,119
but do you still want your prize

1188
00:50:59,589 --> 00:50:57,680
oh it's a joke you know i like jokes

1189
00:51:01,589 --> 00:50:59,599
yeah i played a funny joke on holly tell

1190
00:51:05,190 --> 00:51:01,599
her what i did the bug one

1191
00:51:07,990 --> 00:51:05,200
no good what bug one a bug joke what's

1192
00:51:09,349 --> 00:51:08,000
the bug joke um the pun that i said yes

1193
00:51:12,150 --> 00:51:09,359
you still don't think that's funny

1194
00:51:13,829 --> 00:51:12,160
no did she tell you the drug no no i

1195
00:51:17,190 --> 00:51:13,839
can't say it for context

1196
00:51:20,549 --> 00:51:17,200
an entomologist is a person who studies

1197
00:51:24,069 --> 00:51:20,559
bugs yeah entomology etymology

1198
00:51:26,150 --> 00:51:24,079
is the study of language and language

1199
00:51:27,349 --> 00:51:26,160
they're two very similar sounding words

1200
00:51:29,030 --> 00:51:27,359
the joke that i said

1201
00:51:31,910 --> 00:51:29,040
which is not my joke but i got off the

1202
00:51:33,750 --> 00:51:31,920
internet and i said it is

1203
00:51:36,870 --> 00:51:33,760
people who don't know the difference

1204
00:51:39,190 --> 00:51:36,880
between entomology and etymology

1205
00:51:43,349 --> 00:51:39,200
bug me in ways that i cannot put into

1206
00:51:47,349 --> 00:51:45,910
i don't think it's funny it's so funny

1207
00:51:49,270 --> 00:51:47,359
no it's not

1208
00:51:51,910 --> 00:51:49,280
how do you not think it's funny it's

1209
00:51:54,309 --> 00:51:51,920
just not funny

1210
00:51:55,030 --> 00:51:54,319
is this thing recording yeah oh shoot

1211
00:51:58,069 --> 00:51:55,040
it's all right

1212
00:52:00,390 --> 00:51:58,079
holly tell riley the joke that i played

1213
00:52:01,990 --> 00:52:00,400
you mean the bug one no it's a tough one

1214
00:52:02,870 --> 00:52:02,000
tell her what we just did on the dice

1215
00:52:05,430 --> 00:52:02,880
game

1216
00:52:07,270 --> 00:52:05,440
what so bad about it it's not bad it's

1217
00:52:09,190 --> 00:52:07,280
funny

1218
00:52:12,150 --> 00:52:09,200
so we were gonna play the dice game

1219
00:52:15,510 --> 00:52:12,160
holly made three predictions

1220
00:52:18,470 --> 00:52:15,520
and they all came true because

1221
00:52:23,510 --> 00:52:18,480
you told him to save them but he didn't

1222
00:52:29,670 --> 00:52:28,230
you cheated yeah she cheated

1223
00:52:31,030 --> 00:52:29,680
how rude but we're still going to

1224
00:52:32,950 --> 00:52:31,040
science week but we get to go to science

1225
00:52:34,309 --> 00:52:32,960
week because of it

1226
00:52:35,990 --> 00:52:34,319
if she didn't do this we wouldn't have

1227
00:52:37,349 --> 00:52:36,000
gone to science week actually i already

1228
00:52:38,470 --> 00:52:37,359
signed up for science week we were going

1229
00:52:42,309 --> 00:52:38,480
to go no matter what

1230
00:52:44,470 --> 00:52:42,319
why i only recently told tate about this

1231
00:52:46,549 --> 00:52:44,480
like yesterday yeah you told me

1232
00:52:47,589 --> 00:52:46,559
yesterday are you excited to go taylor

1233
00:52:49,670 --> 00:52:47,599
as soon as that's harder what we were

1234
00:52:51,109 --> 00:52:49,680
gonna do she was like super hyped

1235
00:52:53,109 --> 00:52:51,119
i was like jumping up and down miss

1236
00:52:57,750 --> 00:52:53,119
clark had to tell me they're like yep

1237
00:52:59,750 --> 00:52:57,760
i'm stopping i'm like but i'm excited

1238
00:53:01,589 --> 00:52:59,760
she legit was jumping and nearly fell

1239
00:53:02,790 --> 00:53:01,599
over

1240
00:53:05,190 --> 00:53:02,800
okay i'm going to edit this into